TES VI will sell at least as well as Skyrim on the name alone, regardless of where it's set. I wouldn't be surprised to see them actually expand beyond a single province as defined by pre-Skyrim maps. I think Black Marsh + mainland Morrowind is a possibility, since the Argonians have taken control of that territory. I also wouldn't be too surprised to see Elsweyr and Valenwood combined for TES VI. If they do stick to a single continent, I think Summerset Isle is a likely candidate.
If Bethesda is seriously concerned about a province where Men aren't the predominant race — and I don't think they are — they always have the fallback excuse of the Imperials vying for land.... Cyrodiil borders every other mainland province, and as of TES V, the Empire is seriously vying for ownership in lands outside of Cyrodiilic territory.
I would be surprised if the marketers at Bethesda or Zenimax aren't worried about the effect each game's main race has on sales. TES has been steadily gaining in popularity over the years, Oblivion was a double A game, almost AAA, but still a bit niche. Skyrim served to make TES fully AAA, now marketing traditionally gains greater influence.
I wouldn't hold my breath for a game set in Black Marsh or Elsweyr as beast races aren't that relatable. Valenwood and the Summerset Isles are more likely because elves are more traditionally marketable and, to be frank, look closer to white people than do cats and lizards. I would expect a big 'lol', furry backlash if TES VI was set in Elsweyr as well.
I do wonder if Bethesda's marketers are worried about setting a game in Hammerfell with most of the characters being black people. As sad as it is there are still plenty of racists IRL, if not consciously then subconsciously. Redguards have a lot of muslim influences in their design as well, another thing that marketers might worry about for the game's sales in the North American and European markets.
Of course the ideal situation is that Bethesda and Zenimax's marketing teams have minimal say in these kind of decisions. That would be the ideal situation for creative freedom and the quality of the final product. Myself I am most interested in a game set in the ancient and mysterious forests of Valenwood or Hammerfell, as I would love to explore the vast Al'Akir desert and find dwemer ruins buried beneath the sands.
I find myself most excited to see how beautiful whatever culture Bethesda chooses will be portrayed. Their architecture and the landscape around them displayed in beautiful next gen graphics. Whatever province is settled upon I'm sure it'll be great.
@Ben C
Selling copies does not equal popularity. According to that site PC Skyrim sold worse then Oblivion. And Xbox Morrownd is just under in numbers for PS3 Oblivion. How many people do you think pirated Morrowind after playing Oblivion first? Or Oblivion and Morrowind after they played Skyrim?
Skyrim was aimed at a more diverse audience then the previous games too, resulting in more sales. Judging by this thread, the majority wants it to return to it's roots as a harder, more RPG-styled game and that could do two things - Satisfy the audience that played previous games in the series while driving away newer fans, and/or by bring in more fans>
Every race has risen in popularity when their game is released. I believe I once read somewhere that either Paul or Emer (can't remember who) saying that pre-Skyrim, Nords were unpopular as all hell on the polls, but the latest race pull put them as third! I ebelive the same happened on other fansites with the Dunmer and Imperials.
When I was playing the beta, there was five Argonians to every three Dunmer. And those three Dunmer had maybe one Nord between them. I had a similar experince in the Aldemeri Dominion. In my opinion, that proves people are playing the beast races and elves more then the humans and a game set in those provinces would sell pretty damn well.
I understand that. I think at it's heart, Bethesda does care about the fans and wants to try and satisfy most of our wishes. Hell, they even acknowledge some fan sites.
I got this from Tamriel Foundary, other rather large fansite. Note that the faction which has ZERO human races is the most popular. The Ebonheart Pact, which has only the Nords, is a close second. Meanwhile the one with the most humans is trailing behind.
In my opinion, that proves that the majority of TESO players (at least in this case) don't want to be humans and rather play races they will never get to experience in the real world.
Like come on, why play a boring human when you can be a Khajiit thief, a Bosmer archer, a Altmer mage or an Argonian assassin? Being a human is what we all are, explore something that you'll never get to be.
We're not talking about playable races; we're talking about the main race of each country, the face you see on most bandits and townsfolk.
Furthermore there's a big difference between fans following a game before release and most players. The former is generally speaking more hardcore and the later more casual (see a cool game at gamestop rather than following it online for months).